One Nation has overtaken the Australian Labor Party in primary vote share according to a Roy Morgan poll released in May 2024 [1].
The shift suggests a significant swing in voter sentiment following the Australian federal budget. This surge in support for Pauline Hanson's party creates a volatile political landscape for the governing Labor party as it faces pressure from a rising minor party.
Data from the poll indicates that One Nation primary support reached 32 percent [2]. In comparison, the Labor Party recorded 28.5 percent [2]. The Coalition trailed further behind with 16.5 percent primary support [2].
Steve Price, a host at Sky News Australia, commented on the shift in momentum. "One Nation now outrates the Labor Party, and you can start to see and hear Labor getting worried," Price said [1].
The polling results follow the release of the federal budget, which often serves as a catalyst for voter dissatisfaction. The jump in numbers for One Nation reflects a trend where the party is capturing a larger segment of the electorate than the two major political blocs combined in this specific metric.
Labor officials have reportedly expressed concern over the results. The rise of One Nation represents a challenge to the traditional two-party dominance in Australian politics, a trend that may influence legislative priorities, and campaign strategies heading into the next election cycle.
“One Nation primary support reached 32 percent.”
The polling data indicates a potential fragmentation of the traditional Australian political base. By surpassing both Labor and the Coalition in primary support, One Nation is positioning itself as a primary alternative for voters dissatisfied with the federal budget. This shift may force major parties to pivot their policy positions to recapture voters who are migrating toward populist platforms.
