A new Roy Morgan poll shows the One Nation party surging to a level that could win it up to 59 seats [1].
This shift represents a significant threat to the Liberal-National Coalition, as One Nation's primary-vote support now matches that of the Coalition [2]. The polling suggests a realignment in the Australian federal political landscape that could dismantle the existing conservative alliance.
James Macpherson of Sky News Australia said the findings are a "doomsday" scenario for the Coalition. He said One Nation would win as many as 59 seats if the election were today and that the Nationals would be completely wiped out [1].
The poll, which was released on a Tuesday, indicates that One Nation is drawing support away from traditional Coalition bases [2]. This trend is particularly acute for the National Party, whose seat count is most vulnerable to the surge.
Because the primary support levels for One Nation now mirror those of the Coalition, the party is positioned to challenge for a substantial number of seats in a hypothetical election [2]. The potential loss of the National Party would fundamentally alter the Coalition's ability to govern or maintain its current electoral strategy.
Macpherson said this outcome is a worst-case scenario for the Coalition [1]. The data suggests that the surge in primary support is not a marginal increase but a systemic shift in voter preference toward One Nation.
“One Nation would win as many as 59 seats if the election were today”
The rise of One Nation to parity with the Coalition's primary vote indicates a fragmentation of the right-wing vote in Australia. If these polling trends hold, the National Party may lose its viability as a distinct political entity, forcing the Liberal Party to either absorb One Nation's policy platform or face a severely diminished presence in regional areas.
