Australia's Liberal and Labor parties are reacting with alarm to a surge in popularity for the One Nation party this month [1, 3].
The rise of the right-wing party threatens the electoral dominance of the two major political forces by potentially siphoning off a significant number of seats in the federal arena [3, 5].
Recent polling indicates a sharp increase in support for One Nation since the 2025 federal election [5]. In a scenario where an election were held today, projections suggest One Nation could win 53 seats [4], while the right-of-centre Liberal-National coalition would secure 12 [4].
Alexander Downer said One Nation’s surge in popularity has spooked Australian politicians [1]. The momentum has led the Labor Party to sound an alarm, with a party spokesperson saying, "Don’t let Pauline Hanson convert her party’s ‘momentum into seats’" [2]. Labor has since urged its supporters to provide donations to counter the movement [2].
Internal divisions exist within the Coalition regarding how to handle the rise. Some members are looking to figures like Tony Abbott and Angus Taylor to help the Liberal-National coalition survive what The Economist described as the "stunning rise" of Pauline Hanson [3]. However, Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg said there is no need to deal with One Nation [4].
Data on the party's growth remains contested. While some reports describe the rise as stunning, a separate poll cited by the Herald Sun listed Pauline Hanson's net favorability rating at zero [6]. Despite this contradiction, the potential for a large-scale shift in seat distribution has forced both major parties to evaluate their strategies in the coming weeks [3, 5].
“One Nation’s surge in popularity has spooked Australian politicians.”
The potential shift toward One Nation suggests a growing volatility in the Australian electorate and a possible erosion of the traditional two-party system. If the projected seat gains materialize, the major parties may lose their ability to govern without negotiating with right-wing populists, fundamentally altering the legislative process in the federal parliament.
