One Nation has overtaken both the Labor party and the Coalition in recent national primary-vote polling [1].
The shift suggests a significant migration of conservative voters away from the Coalition toward the right-wing party. This trend threatens the Coalition's traditional base and could alter the dynamics of future electoral contests if the momentum continues.
According to a Redbridge/Accent poll conducted between May 25 and May 28, 2024, One Nation secured a 31% share of the primary vote [1]. The poll, which surveyed 1,005 respondents, placed Labor second with 28% and the Coalition third with 20% [1].
Senator Alex Antic (Liberal) said the results are a worrying trendline for the Coalition. The surge in support for One Nation has created internal pressure for the Coalition to reassess its policy positions to win back disillusioned voters.
"It’s a bit of a phenomenon at the moment, and I think we’re seeing that trendline continue," Antic said. "The numbers are worrying, and that trendline is certainly worrying for the Coalition. We need to be heeding the advice of those who’ve said there are policies which we’ve been …"
The results have sent shockwaves through the Coalition's leadership. While some reports emphasize the surge past Labor, others highlight the specific loss of ground to the Coalition as the primary cause for alarm [2, 3].
One Nation's rise reflects a growing appetite for its specific platform among the electorate. The party has capitalized on a perceived gap in the conservative market, a gap the Coalition has struggled to fill with its current policy framework.
“One Nation secured a 31% share of the primary vote [1].”
The polling indicates a fragmentation of the right-wing vote in Australia. By overtaking the Coalition in primary votes, One Nation is positioning itself not just as a minor party, but as a primary competitor for conservative leadership. This forces the Coalition to either pivot further right to reclaim those voters or risk a permanent loss of its electoral base to a more populist alternative.
