A recent poll shows that approximately one in five Tasmanians would vote for the One Nation political party [1].
The surge suggests a significant shift in the state's political landscape, signaling growing voter dissatisfaction with the current government's fiscal priorities. This movement positions One Nation as the third-most popular party in the state [1, 2].
The data, published May 18, 2026, was gathered from a sample size of 1,000 Tasmanians [1]. While sources vary slightly on the exact percentage, the support for One Nation is reported between 19 percent [2] and 20 percent [1].
This rise in popularity coincides with a decline for the Liberal Party, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff. Reports said that Liberal support has fallen to a 25-year low [2]. The decline is largely attributed to a poorly received state budget, and general voter dissatisfaction with the administration's performance [3, 4].
One Nation has capitalized on this volatility by positioning itself as an alternative for voters disillusioned with the mainstream center-right. The party's growth reflects a broader trend of volatility in regional Australian politics, where budget disputes often drive voters toward populist platforms.
Despite the rise of One Nation, the Liberal Party remains a dominant force in the region, though its grip on the electorate has loosened significantly compared to previous decades [2].
“One Nation is now the third-most popular party in the state.”
The shift in Tasmanian voter sentiment indicates a fragmentation of the conservative base. As the Liberal Party struggles with the fallout of its state budget, One Nation is successfully capturing a segment of the electorate that feels alienated by the government's economic management. This could lead to a more complex legislative environment if these polling numbers translate into seats during the next election cycle.
