One Nation is leading opinion polls in Victoria despite having no leader, no candidates, and only one member in the state upper house [1], [2].
The surge suggests a significant shift in voter sentiment as the state approaches the November 2026 election. The results indicate that a large segment of the electorate may be abandoning traditional major parties in favor of populist messaging [2].
Recent polling shows One Nation has captured 27 percent of the primary vote share in Victoria [2]. This figure places the party ahead of the major political competitors. While some analysis suggests the party's momentum may have slowed, it continues to attract strong support across the state [3].
Commentator Neil Mitchell said the current political landscape is alarming for established parties. He said that the party currently possesses only one member in the upper house who has remained largely silent [1].
"Don’t forget that an empty chair is doing better than both of them really if you look at the polling figures," Mitchell said during a Sky News Australia interview [1].
Mitchell said the party lacks infrastructure, stating that One Nation hasn’t got a leader and hasn’t got candidates [1]. Despite these organizational voids, the party's primary vote remains a dominant force in the lead-up to the state election [2].
“One Nation is leading opinion polls in Victoria despite having no leader, no candidates, and only one member in the state upper house.”
The rise of One Nation in Victoria reflects a broader trend of voter volatility and dissatisfaction with mainstream political institutions. When a party without formal leadership or a candidate list can command a 27 percent primary vote, it suggests that voters are reacting to a brand or a set of populist ideas rather than specific personnel. This creates a precarious situation for major parties that must now compete against an ideological movement that does not yet have a centralized target for opposition.
