Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the race for the Senate in Pernambuco with 16% of voter intention, according to a recent Quaest poll [1].
The results are critical as the state prepares to decide who will fill the two Senate seats allocated to Pernambuco in the 2026 elections. With several candidates trailing closely, the current standings highlight a fragmented electorate and a competitive battle for legislative influence.
The survey, conducted from Aug. 21 to Aug. 24 [7], places Humberto Costa (PT) in second place with 13% support [2]. Following them is Mendonça Filho with nine percent [3]. These figures suggest a tight race where small shifts in voter sentiment could alter the final outcome.
To ensure statistical accuracy, Quaest surveyed 1,302 respondents aged 16 and older [4]. The poll carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points [5] and a confidence level of 95% [6]. The survey is officially registered with the TSE under number PE-07828/2026 [8].
While the Quaest data shows Arraes at 16% [1], other recent polling suggests a slightly different landscape. A RealTime Big Data poll reported Arraes with 20% support, though it aligned with Quaest in placing Humberto Costa at 13%.
The current lead held by Arraes reflects her continued visibility in the region. However, the narrow gap between the top two candidates, separated by only three percentage points, falls within the margin of error for the Quaest survey. This indicates that neither candidate has established a dominant lead as the election approaches.
“Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the race for the Senate in Pernambuco with 16% of voter intention”
The narrow margin between the leading candidates suggests that the Pernambuco Senate race remains undecided. Because the difference between Arraes and Costa is within the poll's margin of error, the results indicate a statistical tie, meaning the final two seats will likely depend on late-campaign momentum and strategic alliances between parties.
