The Liberal Party (PL) will implement a campaign strategy in Rio de Janeiro designed to associate Eduardo Paes with the image of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) [1].
This tactical shift aims to nationalize the gubernatorial contest by framing the race as a proxy battle between the political ideologies of Lula and former President Jair Bolsonaro. By linking Paes to the current president, the PL intends to capitalize on the strong electoral base Bolsonaro maintains within the state [2].
Eduardo Paes (PSD), a former mayor of Rio de Janeiro, currently leads the race for governor with 53% of voting intention [3]. The PL said that associating him with Lula will alienate conservative voters and strengthen the field of candidates aligned with Bolsonaro [2].
Bolsonaro's influence in the region remains significant, as he won the presidential elections in Rio de Janeiro in both 2018 and 2022 [4]. The PL strategy relies on the premise that voters who supported Bolsonaro in those two elections will reject any candidate perceived as an ally of the current administration [2].
By shifting the focus from local governance to national political identities, the PL seeks to erode Paes's lead. The party intends to use this association to mobilize the Bolsonaro-aligned electorate, a group that has historically shown high turnout and consistency in the state [2].
“The PL’s campaign strategy in Rio de Janeiro will deliberately associate Eduardo Paes with the image of President Lula”
This strategy represents a move toward political polarization in regional elections. By transforming a gubernatorial race into a referendum on national leadership, the PL is betting that ideological loyalty to Bolsonaro outweighs local performance metrics or the personal popularity of Eduardo Paes. If successful, it could signal a broader trend where national partisan identities supersede local issues in Brazilian state elections.
