Historian and former UN official Thant Myint-U said the post-World War II rules-based order is eroding, raising the risk of another global conflict.
This shift suggests that the diplomatic and legal frameworks designed to prevent large-scale warfare are no longer sufficient to maintain stability. As these pillars crumble, the possibility of a systemic collapse increases, necessitating new strategies to avoid a catastrophic war.
In an interview with Foreign Affairs, Myint-U discussed his recent essay regarding the fragility of current international relations. He said that the world today is more dangerous and violent than at any time since 1945 [1]. This instability threatens the stability of nations and the security of international trade and diplomacy.
Myint-U said that the period of relative stability known as the long peace has lasted for the past 80 years [2]. However, he suggests that the mechanisms that sustained this peace are now failing. The erosion of these norms creates a vacuum where power politics and aggression can either be unchecked or lead to accidental escalation.
Preventing the next world war requires a fundamental reassessment of how global powers interact. Myint-U said that simply attempting to restore the old order is insufficient because the geopolitical landscape has shifted too drastically.
Other observers have echoed these concerns about global stability. Ray Dalio said in April 2026 that the world may be entering a world war [3]. The convergence of these warnings highlights a growing consensus among historians and economists that the current trajectory is unsustainable.
“The world today is more dangerous and violent than at any time since 1945.”
The warnings from Myint-U and Dalio signal a transition from a unipolar or bipolar world toward a more fragmented system. When the rules-based order—established to prevent the recurrence of total war—breaks down, international relations rely more on raw power than on treaty or law, which historically increases the likelihood of miscalculation and conflict.
