Quantum computing could break Bitcoin's proof-of-work protocol and its underlying cryptography, Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave, said [1].
This development represents a fundamental threat to the security of the world's largest cryptocurrency. Because quantum computers solve the mathematical problems securing public-key cryptography far faster than classical computers, they could potentially allow attackers to seize funds from secure wallets [3, 5].
Estimates on the timeline vary among experts. Some reports indicate a cryptographically capable machine could be built by 2029 [3]. Once active, such a machine could potentially crack current encryption in as little as nine minutes [6]. Other industry perspectives suggest the threat is not imminent and that quantum capabilities may only one day be able to break the system [2].
Despite the debate over timing, the vulnerability of the network is already visible. Approximately 34% of the Bitcoin supply is already exposing public keys on-chain [3]. This exposure increases the attack surface for any future quantum-capable actor.
Some analysts suggest there is a 2% risk that a quantum attack could wipe out cryptocurrency entirely [4]. In response to these risks, the industry has begun investing in defenses. A $5 million fund was recently established to develop quantum-resistant Bitcoin solutions [7].
Companies like Coinbase are also building post-quantum solutions to shield assets from these emerging threats [2]. The goal is to transition the network to a new cryptographic standard before a functional quantum machine arrives.
“Quantum computing could break Bitcoin's proof-of-work protocol and its underlying cryptography”
The emergence of quantum computing creates a race between cryptographic obsolescence and the implementation of 'quantum-resistant' upgrades. If the Bitcoin network cannot reach a governance consensus to upgrade its protocol before a viable quantum machine is developed, the fundamental trust in the blockchain's immutability and ownership could collapse.
