Climate models indicate the El Niño expected in 2026 could be as strong as, or stronger than, any event recorded in the last century [1].
This forecast suggests a potentially record-setting event that could disrupt global weather patterns during the summer of 2026 and the winter of 2026-2027 [2]. Such an extreme amplitude in the tropical Pacific Ocean typically leads to significant shifts in precipitation and temperature across the globe, including potential impacts on New England in the U.S. [3, 4].
Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany, said that the current projections are based on both model outputs and physical arguments. These arguments specifically track the movement and progression of warm water across the Pacific [1, 5].
"The models and physical arguments based on tracking the progress of warm water suggest that the amplitude [of El Niño in 2026] could be as high or potentially higher than any event in the last century," Roundy said [5].
The phenomenon occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm significantly. This shift alters the atmosphere above the ocean, which in turn changes the path of the jet stream, the river of air that steers weather systems across the Northern Hemisphere [2].
While the specific regional effects remain subject to model variance, a "super El Niño" often correlates with warmer winters in some regions and increased storm activity in others [3, 4]. Scientists are monitoring the progression of these warm water masses to determine if the event will reach the record-breaking levels suggested by the current data [1, 5].
“The amplitude [of El Niño in 2026] could be as high or potentially higher than any event in the last century.”
An El Niño event of this magnitude would represent a significant climate anomaly. Because these events influence the global jet stream, a record-setting amplitude could lead to extreme weather volatility, affecting agriculture, disaster preparedness, and energy demands across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
