A Sky News projection indicates a future UK general election would result in a hung parliament with Reform UK as the largest party.
This projection suggests a fundamental realignment of the British electoral map, potentially ending the traditional dominance of the two-party system. If these trends hold, no single party would be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
The analysis is based on the National Equivalent Vote (NEV) from local elections, utilizing data from over three million votes [1]. According to the projection, Reform UK holds a 27% share of the NEV [1]. This figure places them ahead of the Conservative Party, which holds 20% [1], and the Labour Party, which holds 15% [1].
Other parties trailing the leaders include the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, both of which are projected at 14% [1]. Because the vote is split among several parties, the model suggests a hung parliament, a scenario where no party wins enough seats to govern alone.
Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, described the trend as a historic shift in British politics, Farage said [2]. He further stated that Reform has taken Labour’s Red Wall strongholds for good, Farage said [2].
The Red Wall refers to the industrial heartlands of the North of England and the Midlands, which historically voted Labour but shifted toward the Conservatives in 2019. The current projection suggests these voters may now be migrating toward Reform UK.
“Reform UK holds a 27% share of the NEV”
The projection indicates that the UK is moving toward a multi-party system where the traditional Conservative-Labour binary is no longer the primary driver of electoral outcomes. By capturing a significant share of the 'Red Wall,' Reform UK is positioning itself as a primary competitor for working-class voters, which could force future governments to rely on complex coalitions or confidence-and-supply agreements to pass legislation.
