Eduardo Paes, Douglas Ruas, and Anthony Garotinho are the official candidates for the governorship of the State of Rio de Janeiro [1, 2].
The formalization of these candidacies sets the stage for the 2026 elections in one of Brazil's most influential states. The race will determine the leadership of Rio de Janeiro as political parties solidify their strategies and alliances.
Data from a Genial/Quaest poll released Monday, May 27 [3], indicates a substantial lead for Paes. In a hypothetical first-round scenario, Paes holds 34% of the vote, while Ruas follows with nine% and Garotinho with eight% [4].
The polling suggests an even more pronounced gap in a potential runoff. According to the same Genial/Quaest data, Paes would win a second-round election with 49% of the vote compared to 16% for Ruas [5].
These figures emerge as parties finalize their nominations to contest the upcoming gubernatorial seat. While some reports have suggested other names as primary contenders, the Genial/Quaest data positions Paes as the isolated leader in the current field [2, 5].
The competition between Ruas and Garotinho for the second-place position remains tight, with only a one-percentage-point difference between them in the first-round projections [4]. This narrow margin suggests a volatile battle for the remaining support among the electorate as the campaign progresses toward the official election date.
“Eduardo Paes holds 34% of the vote, while Ruas follows with 9% and Garotinho with 8%”
The current polling indicates a significant consolidation of support around Eduardo Paes, suggesting he has a strong baseline of popularity compared to his rivals. However, the tight race for second place between Douglas Ruas and Anthony Garotinho indicates that the opposition is fragmented, which may lead to strategic shifts or coalition-building as the 2026 election approaches.
