Juliana Brizola (PDT) and Luciano Zucco (PL) are statistically tied in the first round of the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial race.
The results indicate a highly competitive race in the Brazilian state, where the lead could shift based on small movements in voter sentiment. This polling data suggests that neither candidate has a definitive hold on the electorate heading into the initial vote.
According to a Genial/Quaest poll released April 30, 2024, Brizola received 24% [1] of voter intentions in the first round. Zucco followed closely with 21% [1] of the intentions. Because the poll carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points [3], the two candidates are considered tied.
The survey reached a sample size of 1,104 respondents [4]. While the poll reflects voter intentions in Rio Grande do Sul, some reporting on the data contained contradictions regarding whether the respondents were based in that state or São Paulo [5].
Despite the tie in the first round, the data indicates a shift in a simulated second-round scenario. In this head-to-head matchup, Brizola leads Zucco.
This trend suggests that Brizola may have a stronger ability to consolidate support from other candidates' bases if the race proceeds to a runoff. The PDT and PL candidates remain the primary contenders for the governorship as the campaign continues.
“Juliana Brizola and Luciano Zucco are statistically tied in the first round.”
The statistical tie in the first round underscores a polarized electorate in Rio Grande do Sul. Brizola's lead in the simulated second round suggests she may possess broader appeal among the wider voting bloc, though the narrow gap and the reported discrepancies in the respondent geography mean the race remains volatile.
