Rogéria Nantes Braga Bolsonaro is appearing as a top candidate in opinion polls for the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate race.

The potential candidacy of the former wife of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro suggests a strategic move by the Liberal Party (PL). The party is reportedly testing the Bolsonaro family's political capital as a contingency plan should incumbent governor Cláudio Castro become ineligible for office.

According to poll RJ-04997/2026 [4], which was released on April 24, 2024 [5], different scenarios show varying levels of support. In the first scenario, Benedita da Silva leads with a 30.4% [1] intention share, followed by Cláudio Castro at 29.9% [2].

In a second scenario that excludes Castro from the race, Rogéria Bolsonaro emerges as a primary contender. In this specific projection, she holds a 28.1% [3] share of the intention vote, placing her in second place behind Benedita da Silva.

Reports on the rankings vary slightly across outlets. While some sources describe her as being tied with the former governor, others specify her position as second in the absence of Castro. This volatility reflects the shifting landscape of the Rio de Janeiro political environment as the 2026 cycle approaches.

The Liberal Party is evaluating these numbers to determine if launching her candidacy is viable. The move would leverage the existing brand recognition of the Bolsonaro name to secure a Senate seat in one of Brazil's most populous states.

“Rogéria Bolsonaro emerges as a primary contender in a scenario excluding Cláudio Castro.”

The inclusion of Rogéria Bolsonaro in these polls indicates that the Liberal Party is diversifying its options for the 2026 elections. By testing a family member of the former president, the party is attempting to gauge whether the Bolsonaro name still commands enough loyalty to offset the potential loss of other key candidates due to legal ineligibility.