Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) would defeat Fernando Haddad (PT) in a hypothetical second-round vote for governor of São Paulo, according to new polling [1].
The results signal a potential shift in the political landscape of Brazil's most populous state as candidates prepare for the upcoming gubernatorial election.
Data from the institute Paraná Pesquisas indicates that de Freitas holds a significant lead. One set of figures shows de Freitas with 52.7% support and Haddad with 37.6% [1]. Another report cited the lead as 53.4% for de Freitas compared to 37.3% for Haddad [2].
Additional metrics from the poll show that 5.7% of respondents chose blank, null, or none of the candidates [1]. Meanwhile, 4% of those polled remained undecided or expressed no opinion [1].
However, the geographic scope of these findings is under dispute. While some reports present the data as representative of the state of São Paulo, a fact-check by Reuters suggests the data refer only to the state capital, São Paulo city [3].
According to the Reuters analysis, the trend in the capital is reversed. In that specific urban center, Haddad leads with 47% support compared to 41% for de Freitas [3]. This contradiction suggests that voter preferences may vary sharply between the metropolitan hub and the broader state interior.
The poll was reported by various outlets earlier this month, with some reports appearing on April 16, 2026 [2], and others on April 21, 2026 [1].
“Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) would defeat Fernando Haddad (PT) in a hypothetical second-round vote”
The discrepancy between the state-wide projections and the capital-city data highlights a common divide in Brazilian politics between urban centers and the interior. If de Freitas' lead is confined to the state's outskirts while Haddad dominates the capital, the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and the ability of either candidate to penetrate the opposing stronghold.
