A new Quaest poll shows a three-way statistical tie between Guilherme Derrite, Marina Silva, and Simone Tebet for the São Paulo Senate race.
The results highlight a fragmented electorate in Brazil's most populous state as candidates vie for influence in the upper house. With three candidates within a narrow margin, the race remains unpredictable heading into the election.
Guilherme Derrite (PP) and Marina Silva (Rede) both hold 12% support [1, 2]. Simone Tebet (PSB) follows closely with 11% [3]. André do Prado holds seven percent [2].
The survey, commissioned by Globo, was conducted between Aug. 21 and Aug. 24 [6]. Researchers polled 1,800 respondents across the state of São Paulo [5]. The margin of error for the findings is ±2 percentage points [6].
Because the gap between the top three candidates is only one percentage point, the results are considered a technical tie. The data suggests that no single candidate has established a dominant lead over the field, a situation that often leads to volatile shifts in voter preference as the campaign intensifies.
André do Prado remains in the race but trails the leaders by at least four percentage points [2]. The poll indicates a competitive environment where small shifts in support could alter the ranking of the front-runners.
“Guilherme Derrite, Marina Silva, and Simone Tebet lead in a tight contest”
The technical tie between a center-right figure like Derrite, an environmentalist like Silva, and a moderate like Tebet suggests a deeply divided ideological landscape in São Paulo. In a race where the margin of error is ±2 percentage points, these results indicate that the electorate has not yet coalesced around a single ideological pole, leaving the door open for strategic alliances or late-campaign surges to determine the winner.
