Senator Sérgio Moro leads all simulated scenarios in opinion polls for the 2026 Paraná governor race.
These results signal significant challenges for opposing candidates and create a political alert for the group supporting current Governor Ratinho Junior as the 2026 succession approaches.
Data from Paraná Pesquisas, released April 11, 2024 [3], placed Moro's support at 42.6% [1]. That specific survey included 247 respondents [2].
Other polling firms have reported similar trends. A survey by Quaest/Genial released April 24, 2024 [4], and a subsequent Quaest poll on April 27, 2024, both indicated that Moro maintains a lead in both first and second-round simulations.
There are discrepancies regarding Moro's current political affiliation. Some reports identify him as a member of the PL-PR party, while others list him with União-PR.
Because Moro leads across different polling institutes, including both Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, the data suggests a broad base of support across the state. The consistent lead in simulated run-offs indicates that he remains the frontrunner despite the variety of competing political interests in the region.
“Sérgio Moro leads all simulated scenarios in opinion polls for the 2026 Paraná governor race.”
Moro's dominance in early polling suggests that his national profile and previous judicial and political roles continue to resonate with voters in Paraná. For the incumbent administration, these numbers indicate that the current political machinery may struggle to produce a candidate capable of overcoming Moro's momentum as the 2026 election cycle begins to solidify.
