Congress MP Shashi Tharoor said exit polls and a consensus among political observers indicate the United Democratic Front (UDF) will win in Kerala [1].

The prediction comes as the state awaits the final results of the Assembly elections, which could signal a significant shift in regional governance.

Speaking in Thiruvananthapuram on May 3, 2026 [2], Tharoor said he was confident that the outcome would be evident shortly after counting begins. He said that the result will be very clear by mid-morning [2].

Tharoor acknowledged the general unreliability of electoral predictions in India. "Exit polls in our country have lots of problems. I don't want to particularly rely on them, but they have all agreed with each other, which is amazing," Tharoor said [1].

He said that his confidence is based on a broad range of perspectives gathered over the last month. He said that experts, journalists, observers, and political analysts from various parties whom he has spoken to since April 4, 2026 [3], are unanimous that the election will result in a UDF win [1].

Official counting for the key Kerala Assembly elections is scheduled to begin at 8 a.m. on May 4, 2026 [4]. The UDF, a coalition led by the Indian National Congress, seeks to secure a majority in the legislature to form the next government.

Tharoor's remarks emphasize a rare alignment between data-driven exit polls and qualitative assessments from political insiders. This convergence has led the MP to project a decisive victory for the coalition, a claim that will be tested as the first batches of results emerge tomorrow morning [4].

“By mid-morning it will be very clear.”

A victory for the UDF would represent a successful challenge to the incumbent administration in Kerala. By citing a 'unanimous' consensus among analysts and polls, Tharoor is attempting to frame the UDF victory as an inevitability, potentially to consolidate momentum and legitimacy before the official count is finalized.