Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Iran could control the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future, if not forever.
This assessment highlights a critical vulnerability in global energy security, as the waterway is a primary artery for the world's oil supply. Any permanent shift in control or prolonged instability in the region could trigger volatile fluctuations in global energy markets.
Speaking in an interview broadcast on Bloomberg Television, Sherman said that the current strategy of escalating financial sanctions is ineffective. She said the United States’ extra economic pressure under President Donald Trump will not make Iran’s leadership cave.
Sherman's comments suggest a disconnect between the current administration's policy of maximum pressure and the geopolitical reality on the ground. She said that Tehran is unlikely to relinquish its influence over the strategic chokepoint regardless of the economic cost imposed by Washington.
However, not all regional actors share this pessimistic view. An unnamed official from the United Arab Emirates said to Middle East Eye that Iran’s plan to control the Hormuz waterway is a pipe-dream.
The disagreement between Sherman and the UAE official reflects a broader debate over Iran's actual capacity to shut down the strait. While Iran possesses the geographical advantage, the presence of international naval forces continues to contest that dominance.
Sherman's warning comes amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, where diplomatic channels remain strained and economic warfare has become the primary tool of engagement.
“"For the foreseeable future, if not forever, Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz."”
The divide between Sherman's warning and the UAE's dismissal underscores the volatility of the Persian Gulf. If Sherman's assessment is correct, it suggests that economic sanctions have reached a point of diminishing returns and cannot serve as a primary tool for ensuring the free flow of maritime traffic. This places a higher premium on naval deterrence and diplomatic negotiation to prevent a total blockade of one of the world's most vital trade routes.
