The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) issued a report warning of a high risk of severe trans-boundary haze across Singapore and Southeast Asia.
This forecast is critical because severe haze degrades air quality and disrupts public health and economic activity across the region. The phenomenon typically occurs when smoke from forest and peat fires in neighboring countries drifts into Singapore.
According to the report, the peak risk period for this haze is identified as August-September 2026 [1]. However, other reports indicate a broader window of higher risk extending from June to October 2026 [3].
The primary driver of these conditions is the development of El Niño, which is expected to emerge between June and July 2026 [2]. This climate pattern typically brings hotter and drier weather to the region, conditions that make forests and peatlands more susceptible to ignition.
Once these fires start, the resulting smoke can travel long distances. The SIIA report said these environmental factors increase the likelihood of severe trans-boundary haze affecting the wider Southeast Asian region [1].
Regional authorities often monitor these patterns to coordinate fire prevention and suppression efforts. The risk is particularly high in areas with extensive peatlands, where fires can burn underground and remain difficult to extinguish for long periods.
While the SIIA highlights the August-September window as the most dangerous, the broader June-October timeframe [3] suggests a prolonged period of atmospheric instability. The onset of El Niño conditions in June and July [2] serves as the initial catalyst for the dry spell that fuels these fires.
“Severe trans-boundary haze in Singapore and the wider Southeast Asian region”
The recurrence of El Niño creates a predictable but dangerous cycle of air quality degradation in Southeast Asia. Because the haze is trans-boundary, the situation depends not only on Singapore's internal readiness but on the land-management practices and fire-fighting capabilities of neighboring nations. A prolonged risk window from June through October suggests that regional health systems may need to prepare for a multi-month respiratory health crisis.
