The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates North Korea possesses about 60 nuclear warheads and China about 620 [1].

These figures provide a critical snapshot of the evolving security landscape in East Asia. As nations expand their arsenals, the gap between estimated warhead counts and the actual capacity to produce them reveals the pace of nuclear weaponization.

According to data released in January 2026, the SIPRI estimates are based on the analysis of fissile material production capacity and other open-source intelligence [1], [2]. The organization said that the current number of assembled warheads is likely lower than the total material capacity available to these nations [1], [2].

In the case of North Korea, the current stockpile of approximately 60 warheads [1] is lower than its potential output. SIPRI analysis suggests that North Korea could produce up to 90 warheads with its existing fissile material [1].

China's stockpile is larger, with an estimated 620 nuclear warheads [1]. The disparity between the two nations highlights different strategic objectives—one focusing on regime survival and the other on global superpower status.

These estimates come amid continued reports of nuclear expansion in the region. Earlier this month, North Korean leadership inspected a new nuclear material plant and urged the further expansion of the national arsenal [3].

SIPRI said that its methodology relies on tracking the raw materials necessary for weaponization to reach these conclusions [1], [2]. By monitoring the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, the institute can estimate the ceiling of a country's nuclear capability even when official numbers are withheld [1].

“North Korea possesses about 60 nuclear warheads and China about 620”

The distinction between 'assembled warheads' and 'fissile material capacity' indicates that while North Korea and China have the raw materials for larger arsenals, the actual deployment of weapons takes more time and technical infrastructure. The potential for North Korea to increase its count from 60 to 90 warheads suggests a latent capacity for rapid escalation that complicates diplomatic efforts to denuclearize the peninsula.