Skymet Weather Services has reduced its monsoon rainfall forecast to 85% of the long-period average [1].
This adjustment signals a significant threat to India's agricultural output, as lower rainfall levels during the critical monsoon months can lead to widespread crop failure and food insecurity.
Senior meteorologist Jatin Singh said the updated outlook includes a projected rainfall deficit of 16% for August [3] and a 20% deficit for September [4]. These figures reflect a downward trend in expected precipitation across the region. Consequently, Skymet has raised the probability of drought to 70% [2].
The weather service identified several regions at particular risk, including the states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar [5]. These areas are heavily dependent on seasonal rains for irrigation and water supply.
Meteorologists attribute the shifting patterns to a persistent El Niño event. This climate phenomenon is expected to last until January 2025 [5], driving lower-than-normal rainfall across the subcontinent. The persistence of El Niño often disrupts the typical moisture flow required for a robust monsoon season.
While the long-period average provides a baseline for expectations, the current forecast of 85% [1] suggests a substantial shortfall. The combined deficits for the next two months create a compounding effect that increases the likelihood of severe water shortages.
“Skymet has raised the probability of drought to 70%.”
The downward revision of the monsoon forecast suggests a heightened risk of agricultural stress in India's breadbasket states. Because the monsoon is the primary driver of the Indian economy's rural sector, a 70% drought probability could lead to increased food inflation and a reliance on government irrigation reserves to prevent total crop loss.
