South Korea is expected to experience abnormal heat starting in June and above-average rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season [1].
These forecasts signal a potentially volatile summer for the Korean peninsula, where extreme temperature swings and localized flooding could disrupt agriculture and public infrastructure.
Scientists from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecast that temperatures in June will be two to three degrees Celsius above the historical average [1]. This warming trend is driven by unusually high sea-surface temperatures in the North Indian Ocean and the North Pacific [1]. According to the KMA, these conditions increase warm-air flow and turbulence, which strengthens the heat over the peninsula [1].
Cho Ik-hyun, chief of the KMA Climate Prediction Division, said the sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain high due to high heat capacity and turbulence stronger than in average years [1]. He said temperatures for the summer season will be higher than normal [1].
In addition to the heat, the region expects above-average precipitation during the monsoon period [1]. While the overall trend points toward a heatwave, the KMA said there is a heightened risk of localized heavy rain specifically in August 2024 [1]. This combination of extreme heat and erratic rainfall creates a pattern of unstable weather across the country, particularly in the southern region [1].
Regional meteorologists said recent weather patterns have already shown signs of early heat and erratic rain [2]. The KMA continues to monitor the interaction between the North Pacific and Indian Ocean currents to refine these projections [1].
“June temperatures expected to be two to three degrees Celsius above normal”
The synchronization of warming in both the North Indian and North Pacific Oceans suggests a broader climatic shift that amplifies regional extremes. For South Korea, this means the traditional monsoon cycle is becoming more volatile, where intense heat is punctuated by severe, localized flooding rather than steady seasonal rain.
