Recent opinion polls show the Seoul mayoral race narrowing to a single-digit margin just two weeks before the June 3, 2024, local elections [1].

The tightening race reflects a consolidation of party bases in South Korea's most populous city, while a violent attack on a candidate in Busan has shifted the national conversation toward political stability.

In Seoul, Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-oh and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon are locked in a close contest. An MBC poll gave Jeong 43% and Oh 35%, representing an eight-percentage point gap [1]. However, a Chosun Ilbo poll showed a tighter race, with Jeong at 40% and Oh at 37% [1]. That three-percentage point difference falls within the reported 1.9-percentage point margin of error [1].

While Seoul remains a primary focus, the race in Busan has been marked by violence. Reform Party candidate Jeong I-han issued a public statement after surviving a shooting intended to intimidate political figures [3].

Jeong I-han called for "politics of recovery, not hatred," Jeong said in a statement [3].

The political climate in the "Big 3" cities — Seoul, Busan, and Daegu — remains volatile as the election date approaches. Former PPP floor leader Kim Sung-tae and Democratic MP Kim Young-bae have also been referenced in discussions regarding the shifting electoral landscape [1].

As the candidates enter the final fortnight of campaigning, the disparity between the MBC and Chosun Ilbo polls suggests that voter volatility remains high in the capital. The ability of the Democratic Party to maintain its lead or for the People Power Party to close the gap will likely depend on turnout in key districts.

“The Seoul mayoral race is tightening to a single-digit margin.”

The convergence of poll numbers in Seoul suggests that the race is no longer a landslide for either party, making the final two weeks of campaigning critical. Simultaneously, the shooting of Jeong I-han in Busan introduces a volatile element of political violence into the election, which may either galvanize a candidate's base through sympathy or deepen the existing polarization across the three major urban centers.