Recent polls show tight competition for the Seoul and Busan mayoral offices and the Busan Buk-gap by-election as early voting begins [1].

These figures are critical because they illustrate the volatility of voter sentiment just before the legal blackout period for polling results. With several races within the margin of error, the outcomes could signal a broader shift in political momentum for the major parties.

During the first TV debate held on the first day of early voting, anchor Lee Ha-rin presented data from three major terrestrial broadcasters [1]. In the Seoul mayoral race, MBC polling showed Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-oh at 41% and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon at 37% [1]. Another poll by SBS showed a wider lead for Jeong Won-oh at 46% compared to 35% for Oh Se-hoon [1].

"In the MBC Seoul mayoral survey, Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-oh is at 41% and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon is at 37%, a close race within a four percentage point margin of error," Lee said [1].

The Busan mayoral race also showed significant movement. One survey placed candidate Jeon Jae-soo at 47% and Park Heung-joon at 34% [1]. A second survey showed Jeon Jae-soo at 45% and Park Heung-joon at 36% [1].

Competition remained high in the Busan Buk-gap by-election. One survey listed independent candidate Han Dong-hoon at 43%, Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo at 37%, and Park Min-shik at 14% [1]. A second survey recorded Han Dong-hoon at 39%, Ha Jung-woo at 35%, and Park Min-shik at 14% [1].

"In the Busan Buk-gap by-election, independent candidate Han Dong-hoon received 43%, Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo 37%, and candidate Park Min-shik 14%," Lee said [1].

The analysis included insights from political commentator Kim Sang-il and former People Power Party lawmaker Kim Young-woo to contextualize the shifting numbers [1].

“Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-oh is at 41% and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon is at 37%”

The proximity of these candidates in the final polls suggests that undecided voters and early voting turnout will be the deciding factors. The overlap in results between different broadcasters indicates a highly competitive environment where neither party has secured a definitive lead in these strategic urban hubs.