A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is predicted to collide with the Moon on Aug. 5, 2026 [4].
The event provides a rare opportunity for scientists to observe a high-speed impact in real time. Because the booster is uncontrolled space debris, its collision will create a visible plume of lunar dust and a permanent new crater.
The upper stage is a remnant of a January 2025 launch that carried the Blue Ghost-1 lunar lander from Firefly Aerospace and ispace's Resilience mission [1]. Weighing approximately 9,000 pounds [3], the booster is expected to strike the lunar surface at a speed of 5,400 mph [1].
Astronomers predict the impact will occur around 2:35 a.m. ET [2]. The collision is expected to happen on the near-side of the Moon, though reports differ on the exact location. Some sources place the impact near the Einstein crater [1], while others identify the Eisenhower crater as the target [2].
This unplanned re-entry serves as a natural experiment for researchers. By monitoring the resulting dust plume and the dimensions of the new crater, scientists can better understand the composition of the lunar surface, and the physics of high-velocity impacts.
“The booster is expected to strike the lunar surface at a speed of 5,400 mph.”
The collision highlights the growing issue of orbital debris in the cislunar environment. While this specific event offers scientific value, the uncontrolled descent of heavy rocket stages underscores the lack of standardized disposal protocols for hardware operating between Earth and the Moon.
