SportsLine’s simulation model predicts the New York Mets will face the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Saturday, April 18, with the Mets at +110 odds.

The forecast matters to bettors because SportsLine runs 10,000 simulations per game, offering data—driven lines that many consider more reliable than conventional odds. The model’s depth allows it to factor player matchups, park factors and recent performance, giving punters a statistical edge. [1]

The model’s track record includes a 35‑29 money‑line profit last season and nearly 30 units from home‑run prop bets in 2025, showing its ability to spot value across bet types. [2][3]

CBS Sports lists the Mets as +110 money‑line favorites and the Cubs at –132, with an over/under total of eight runs. The Cubs entered the game at 9‑9, while the Mets were 7‑12. Some outlets describe the contest as the first game of a three‑game set, but the New York Post notes it is the second. “The Mets will look to break out of their funk in the second of a three-game set at Wrigley Field against the Cubs.” said the New York Post. [5][6][8][9]

First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET, according to the Holland Sentinel. “First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET.” said the Sentinel. [4]

“The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times,” said CBS Sports. [1]

Bookmakers across the market have posted similar lines, but the SportsLine projection often diverges by a few points, prompting sharp bettors to compare the model’s implied probability with traditional book odds. The over/under is set at eight runs [7], matching the median of other sportsbooks. The eight‑run total sits near the median of published over/under figures, making the run line a focal point for strategic wagers.

The 35‑29 money‑line profit last season reflects a 20% win rate above the break‑even point, while the near‑30‑unit home‑run prop gain shows the model’s edge in specialty markets. [2][3]

The matchup draws attention not only from local fans but also from a national betting audience that follows MLB odds closely. With the game set for a 2:20 p.m. ET start, many bettors plan to place wagers before the opening lines solidify, hoping to lock in the projected value offered by the SportsLine model.

What this means: The odds suggest a modest edge for the Cubs, but the Mets’ recent form and the model’s extensive simulation could keep the game within a tight range, making the total of eight runs a focal point for bettors.

“The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.”

The odds suggest a modest edge for the Cubs, but the Mets’ recent form and the model’s extensive simulation could keep the game within a tight range, making the total of eight runs a focal point for bettors.