Climate scientists and meteorologists warn that a "super" El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean during 2026 [1, 2].
The event could trigger extreme rainfall, heat, drought, and flooding worldwide, creating significant humanitarian risks and straining global food and water supplies [1, 3, 5].
Data indicates the chances of this rare event occurring in 2026 have increased [3]. Some experts suggest this could be the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s [4]. While some reports state a super El Niño is now the most likely scenario by the end of the year, other scientists said it is too early to forecast such an event with absolute certainty [2, 4].
The phenomenon is driven by warmer sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific. Experts said climate change is increasing the strength of these events, which amplifies the risk of weather extremes [1, 5].
The impacts of this warming cycle are expected to persist through 2027 [1, 4]. This timeline is particularly concerning for global temperature records, as 2027 could become the warmest year on record [1].
Because El Niño alters atmospheric circulation, the effects are felt globally rather than remaining localized to the Pacific. The resulting instability in weather patterns often leads to crop failures and water scarcity in vulnerable regions [3, 5].
“A ‘super’ El Niño is now the most likely scenario by the end of the year”
The potential for a 'super' El Niño represents a convergence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic warming. If the event reaches the predicted intensity, the resulting disruptions to agriculture and water security could exacerbate existing humanitarian crises, making global infrastructure more vulnerable to simultaneous extreme weather shocks across different continents.
