A projected Super El Niño episode may increase grain production in Brazil and Argentina, according to research from Allianz.
This shift in climate patterns could alter global food supply chains by increasing the volume of grains available from two of the world's largest agricultural exporters.
The Allianz research economic area identified the timeframe for this event as 2026-2027 [1]. The report said the specific climate conditions linked to a strong El Niño are expected to be more favorable for grain yields in the region [1].
While some reports highlight the potential for increased production, other agencies suggest the event may be exceptionally severe. Brazilian agencies said the phenomenon could reach a very strong intensity in Brazil [2]. This peak intensity is expected to occur between October and December 2026 [2].
The potential for a production boost comes amid contradictory assessments of the risk. While the Allianz report focuses on the favorable supply of grains, other data suggests Brazil may face one of the most intense El Niño episodes of the century. Such intensity typically implies heightened risks for the country's infrastructure and environment.
Agricultural experts continue to monitor the Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures to determine the exact strength of the cycle. The outcome will depend on whether the increased rainfall in southern regions offsets potential droughts in the north, a common characteristic of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
“A projected Super El Niño episode may increase grain production in Brazil and Argentina”
The tension between the Allianz projection and the warnings from Brazilian agencies highlights the volatility of 'Super' El Niño events. While increased rainfall in certain regions can lead to record-breaking grain harvests, the overall intensity of the event can trigger extreme weather that threatens other sectors of the economy. The global market will likely see increased price volatility for grains as the peak intensity period approaches in late 2026.
