A potential "super" El Niño is expected to create significant risks for global food production throughout 2026 and 2027 [1, 2, 3].
This climate shift matters because it can trigger prolonged droughts and extreme heat, directly threatening the stability of agricultural yields in key regions like Brazil and Asia [2, 5].
Climate models suggest the phenomenon may intensify from May 2024 onward [4] and is expected to develop further in the second half of 2026 [1]. Experts predict the event will peak between June and August 2026, with effects continuing into 2027 [4, 2]. While El Niño typically lasts between nine and 12 months [6], the scale of this event has raised concerns among researchers.
Dr. Marshall Shepherd said, "We could be heading toward a historic super El Niño that would have profound impacts on global agriculture" [5]. This phenomenon occurs when surface sea temperatures rise, leading to higher air temperatures and the dry conditions that reduce crop yields [5, 7, 8].
In Brazil, the risk is particularly acute in Rio Grande do Sul [4]. A climate specialist from Embrapa said that farmers need to prepare for possible crop losses due to the risk of drought [7]. An analyst from the Instituto Clima e Sociedade said that El Niño could aggravate climate tragedies and threaten food production within the country [8].
There is some disagreement among experts regarding the exact intensity of the coming event. Some reports suggest the strength remains uncertain [4], while other models indicate a high probability of a "super" event [7]. Despite these variations, the consensus points toward a severe impact on the agricultural sector [3, 8].
“We could be heading toward a historic super El Niño that would have profound impacts on global agriculture.”
The intersection of a 'super' El Niño with existing global food insecurity could lead to increased commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. Because Brazil is a primary exporter of soybeans and other staples, severe droughts in Rio Grande do Sul may force international markets to seek alternative sources, potentially destabilizing food costs in importing nations across Asia and Europe.
