A strong El Niño climate phenomenon is projected to develop from mid-2026 [1], threatening to weaken the Indian monsoon season.
This atmospheric shift is critical because the Indian economy and food security rely heavily on predictable monsoon rains. A significant disruption could lead to agricultural failure in key grain-producing regions while increasing the risk of catastrophic urban flooding in coastal cities.
The World Meteorological Organisation and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said the phenomenon will alter atmospheric circulation. The IMD forecast predicts below-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026 [2]. This suppression of rain is expected to create a stark divide in regional impacts across the country.
Northern regions face the highest risk of water scarcity. Specifically, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi are identified as areas prone to drought [4]. These states are vital to India's agricultural output, meaning a lack of rain could impact crop yields across the subcontinent.
Conversely, other regions may experience the opposite extreme. Chennai is flagged as a city facing a significant risk of flooding [4]. This highlights the volatile nature of a "super" El Niño, which can cause simultaneous drought in one region and destructive deluge in another.
Temperature extremes are also expected to intensify during the transition into the monsoon. Forecasters said temperatures could reach up to 45 °C in May and June 2026 [3]. These heatwaves are expected to precede the disrupted rains, placing additional stress on public health and power grids.
The phenomenon develops in the Pacific Ocean, but its effects are global. While the IMD focuses on the below-normal rainfall trend for India [2], broader international forecasts suggest the event could bring extreme rainfall and destructive flooding to various parts of the world beyond the Indian subcontinent [2].
“A strong El Niño climate phenomenon is projected to develop from mid-2026”
The projection of a super El Niño suggests a year of extreme climate volatility for India. By simultaneously threatening the 'breadbasket' states of the north with drought and coastal hubs like Chennai with floods, the event could trigger a dual crisis of food inflation and urban infrastructure failure. The combination of 45 °C heatwaves and erratic rainfall will likely test the limits of India's disaster management and agricultural resilience.
