Climate scientists and weather agencies warn that a potentially record-breaking "super" El Niño is rapidly forming in the Pacific Ocean.
This event matters because a super El Niño can disrupt global weather patterns, leading to extreme heat, severe droughts, and increased risks of famine and wildfires across multiple continents.
The phenomenon originates in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Experts expect the event to develop over the next few weeks, with the most intense phase projected for the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2026 [1, 3]. The intensity is driven by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures and favorable wind patterns, though the final strength depends on volatile atmospheric shifts [1, 4].
Some models suggest the event could be stronger than any on record, with a sea-surface temperature anomaly potentially exceeding two degrees Celsius above average [4]. While some scientists note that the outcome hinges on fickle winds, others indicate a high probability that this event will exceed the strength of the 1997-98 El Niño [1, 4].
"A super El Niño is taking shape, but whether it becomes a historic event will hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts," the lead author of the study said [1].
The regional impacts are expected to be severe. In the U.S. Southwest, a super El Niño could cause unprecedented heat spikes that worsen the existing Colorado River water crisis [2]. A Colorado River Basin water manager said, "If this El Niño reaches super strength, we could see unprecedented heat spikes across the Southwest, worsening the Colorado River water crisis" [2].
Global storm patterns may also shift. Hurricane expert Dr. Laura Martinez said a super El Niño would likely suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, but could intensify storms in the Pacific and increase drought risks in Africa [3]. This suppression could result in up to 30% fewer named storms in the Atlantic [3].
“"A super El Niño is taking shape, but whether it becomes a historic event will hinge on fickle winds"”
The emergence of a super El Niño represents a significant climate amplifier. By raising global baseline temperatures, this event can turn manageable seasonal weather into extreme disasters, placing immense pressure on water management systems in the U.S., and food security in Africa and Asia. The disparity in hurricane activity—fewer in the Atlantic but more in the Pacific—will force a redistribution of emergency preparedness resources across the two basins.
