NOAA forecasters and United Nations climate officials warn that a very strong El Niño is expected to develop by the fall or winter of 2026 [1, 2, 3].
This development is significant because the event could reach "Super" El Niño intensity, potentially shattering previous records and disrupting weather patterns globally [1, 3].
Experts said the transition is occurring faster than expected. This rapid shift is driven by the warming of Pacific waters, a process that climate officials said is being amplified by ongoing climate change [1, 2, 3].
While El Niño events occur periodically, the speed of the current transition is unusual. Forecasters said that the warming of the Pacific Ocean is creating a trajectory toward a historic event, one that could impact agriculture, water security, and natural disaster risks across multiple continents [1, 3].
The UN and NOAA continue to monitor the Pacific Ocean to determine the exact scale of the warming. The potential for a "Super" event suggests that the atmospheric response could be more severe than typical strong El Niño years [1, 3].
“A very strong El Niño is expected to develop, potentially reaching historic ‘Super’ El Niño intensity.”
A 'Super' El Niño represents an extreme deviation in sea surface temperatures that can shift global jet streams. This often leads to severe droughts in some regions and catastrophic flooding in others, meaning governments may need to accelerate emergency preparedness for food and water shortages before the winter of 2026.
