Susquehanna International Group's sports-prediction market desk suffered its biggest loss on record after the New York Knicks won Game 4 of the NBA Finals [3].
The event highlights the volatility of prediction markets and the risk market makers face when retail traders bet against institutional models during improbable sporting events.
The loss occurred Wednesday, June 10, during the 2026 NBA Finals [1]. The New York Knicks staged a historic comeback, erasing a 29-point deficit to secure the victory [2]. This massive swing in game momentum created a corresponding shift in betting odds, leaving the firm's sports desk exposed.
Retail traders using the Kalshi platform bought the opposite side of the market as the comeback unfolded. Because Susquehanna's desk acted as the market maker, it was forced to pay out the winnings to those traders [2]. According to reports, retail traders took roughly $22 million from the desk [1].
Jeff Yass founded Susquehanna International Group and established the firm's sports-prediction market desk [1]. While the firm manages a vast array of financial instruments, this specific loss represents the most significant hit the sports-focused arm has ever taken [3].
The outcome underscores how rapid shifts in live sporting events can bypass the risk management strategies of professional trading desks. In this instance, the sheer scale of the 29-point miracle comeback [2] overwhelmed the market-making positions held by the firm.
“Susquehanna International Group's sports-prediction market desk suffered its biggest loss on record”
This event demonstrates the 'black swan' risk inherent in sports prediction markets, where a statistically improbable athletic feat can lead to immediate and massive financial liability for market makers. When retail sentiment aligns with a historic underdog comeback, institutional desks providing liquidity can be forced into heavy payouts that defy standard probabilistic modeling.
