Chanakya’s exit poll for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election projects a second term for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance.
These projections are significant because they suggest a major shift in the state's political landscape, specifically regarding the rise of a new political entity and the decline of traditional power blocs.
According to the poll, the DMK-led alliance is projected to win 125 seats [1] in the 234-member Assembly. The poll team said the alliance would win with a margin of 11 [1].
In a surprising turn, the Tamil Nadu Forward Bloc (TVK), led by Vijay, is projected to secure 63 seats [1]. The Chanakya team said the TVK is "set to gain big in TN" [1]. This projection places the TVK ahead of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) alliance, which is projected to win 45 seats [1].
These figures have sparked a public dispute among political observers. Analyst N Ramasubramanian challenged the accuracy of the Chanakya numbers during an appearance on Republic. He said the projections were "absolutely ridiculous" [2].
Ramasubramanian provided a contrasting estimate for the ruling party, stating that the DMK would actually secure between 140 and 160 seats [2]. This discrepancy highlights a sharp divide between the poll's data and the expectations of pro-DMK analysts regarding the scale of the party's victory, and the actual influence of the TVK party.
“DMK-led alliance will win 125 seats (with a margin of 11) in the 234-member Assembly.”
The tension between Chanakya's projections and N Ramasubramanian's estimates reflects a broader debate over whether the 2026 election represents a continuation of DMK dominance or a fundamental disruption by Vijay's TVK. If the poll's projection of 63 seats for TVK is accurate, it would signal a historic collapse of the traditional bipolar contest between the DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
