Exit polls and political experts indicate the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is expected to return to power in Tamil Nadu [1, 2, 3].
The results will determine if the established political order remains intact or if the entry of cinema stars into politics can disrupt the state's long-standing power dynamics.
Data from the April 23, 2026 [4] assembly elections suggest a landslide victory for the DMK alliance [1]. Analysts point to the party's strong voter base as the primary driver for its expected success. V Venkatesh Iyer said, "DMK is set to return to power" [3].
Attention has centered on the performance of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay. The TVK contested the election solo, without an alliance [4]. This decision has led some experts to believe the party will struggle to dominate the legislature. Rangaraj Pandey said, "Vijay is unlikely to emerge as the dominant force in this election" [3].
Projections for the TVK vary significantly across different polls. The Chanakya exit poll predicts the party will secure 63 seats with a 30% vote share [2]. Conversely, the Axis My India poll offers a higher projection, estimating the TVK could win between 98 and 120 seats [2].
While some projections suggest the TVK could act as a kingmaker if it achieves a high seat count, others maintain that the lack of strategic partnerships limits its ability to seize total control. The party's performance is being viewed as a test of whether celebrity appeal can translate into a governing majority without traditional political coalitions [1, 4].
“"DMK is set to return to power."”
The disparity in exit poll numbers for the TVK highlights the uncertainty surrounding Vijay's political debut. While the DMK's projected victory suggests stability for the current administration, a strong showing by a solo party like the TVK could signal a shift in voter appetite toward independent movements over traditional alliance-based politics in Tamil Nadu.
