Exit polls project that actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) party could win a significant number of seats in the Tamil Nadu assembly election [1].
The results could fundamentally reshape the state's political landscape by disrupting the long-standing dominance of the DMK and AIADMK. Because the TVK is contesting the election alone, its performance may determine which traditional party retains or gains power.
The Tamil Nadu assembly consists of 234 seats [3]. An Axis My India exit poll projects the TVK will win between 98 and 120 of those seats [1]. Another Axis My India aggregator provided a broader estimate of 100-plus seats for the party [2].
The election took place in a single phase on April 23, 2026 [4]. Following the vote, exit poll results were released after 6:30 p.m. on election day [2].
Campaign activity for the TVK was concentrated in areas such as Tiruvannamalai district and Chennai’s T. Nagar [5]. Analysts said that the party's vote share could be drawn from either the DMK or AIADMK, which means the TVK's final tally may tip the balance of seats between the two rivals [6].
Vijay chose to run without an alliance for this cycle [1]. This strategy positions the TVK as either a spoiler for the established parties or a kingmaker capable of forming a coalition government if no other party secures a clear majority.
“Axis My India exit poll projects TVK winning between 98 and 120 of the 234 assembly seats”
The projected rise of the TVK suggests a shift toward a three-way contest in Tamil Nadu, breaking the historical bipolarity of the DMK and AIADMK. If the exit polls prove accurate, Vijay's ability to capture a large share of the vote independently grants him significant leverage in post-election negotiations, potentially forcing the traditional parties to concede to his policy demands to form a government.
