Exit polls project the DMK-led alliance will retain power in Tamil Nadu following elections held on April 23, 2026 [1].
These projections signal a potential shift in the state's political landscape, as a new party led by a popular cinema star challenges the established two-party dominance.
According to analysis from Today's Chanakya, the DMK-led alliance, headed by M.K. Stalin, is projected to win 125 seats [2] in the 234-member Assembly [3]. This figure exceeds the 118-seat majority threshold [4]. The pollster said the alliance is expected to win with a margin of 11 [2].
The projections also highlight a significant debut for the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) party, led by actor Vijay. Today's Chanakya projected that the TVK will win 63 seats [5] and secure a 30 percent vote share [6]. The pollster said this projected performance is due to early voter sentiment and the popularity of Vijay.
While these figures suggest a DMK victory, other projections show a more contested outcome. CNBC TV18 reported that the AIADMK+ alliance is tipped to cross the majority mark, holding a narrow edge over the DMK+ alliance [7].
Official voter turnout for the election was 84.29% [8]. The final results are scheduled to be announced on May 4, 2026 [1].
"Vijay's TVK is projected to make a strong debut with 63 seats and 30 per cent vote share," Today's Chanakya said [6].
“the DMK-led alliance, headed by M.K. Stalin, is projected to win 125 seats”
The projections indicate a potential transition from a traditional bipolar contest between the DMK and AIADMK toward a tripolar system. If the TVK secures 63 seats, it would establish itself as a major political force in a single election cycle, potentially acting as a kingmaker or a primary challenger to the incumbent government.
