An exit poll released Thursday predicts the DMK-led alliance will win a majority of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly [1].
The projection suggests a second term for the incumbent government led by M.K. Stalin. This result would signal a continuation of current state policies and a significant blow to the AIADMK, which has historically dominated the state's political landscape.
Chanakya predicts the DMK-led alliance will secure 125 seats [3]. With 234 total seats in the assembly [1], the 118 seats required for a majority [2] would be surpassed by this margin. The poll carries an error margin of ±11 seats [4].
While the DMK alliance maintains a lead, the poll indicates that the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the party founded by actor Vijay, is expected to outperform the AIADMK [1]. This shift suggests a realignment of the opposition vote in the state.
Other projections offer a different outlook for the TVK. An Axis My India poll projects the party will win between 98 and 120 seats [5]. This range would potentially position the TVK as a major power player or even a majority holder, contrasting with the Chanakya projection that favors the DMK alliance.
Another "poll of poll" analysis suggests the race remains tight and that the TVK could emerge as a kingmaker, implying the DMK may not possess a decisive lead [5].
Official results will be determined during the counting day on May 4, 2026 [6].
“The DMK-led alliance will secure 125 seats.”
The discrepancy between the Chanakya and Axis My India polls highlights a volatile political environment in Tamil Nadu. If the TVK successfully disrupts the traditional DMK-AIADMK bipolarity, the state could move toward a multi-polar system where smaller parties hold significant leverage over government formation.
