Exit polls suggest the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) could win roughly 100 seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election [1], [2].
The result would represent a historic shift in state politics, as the party founded by actor Vijay contests its first election and threatens the dominance of the incumbent DMK-led government [1], [3].
Polling took place on April 23, 2026 [4]. Voter turnout across Tamil Nadu was reported at 84.29% [4]. The projections were broadcast on April 29, 2026, shortly after 6:30 p.m. [1], [5].
Data from different sources show a slight variation in the expected seat count for the newcomer. One projection suggests TVK would win between 98 and 120 seats [1]. Another projection indicates the party would secure 100-plus seats [2].
These figures place the TVK close to the majority threshold of 118 seats required to govern the 234-seat assembly [4]. If the projections hold, the party could either form a government or become the primary power broker in coalition negotiations.
The surge of the TVK follows the actor's transition into full-time politics, a move that has drawn significant attention across the state. The potential for a high seat haul suggests a fracturing of the traditional vote banks that have long supported the established coalitions in the region [1], [3].
“TVK predicted to win 98-120 seats”
The entry of a celebrity-led party into the Tamil Nadu Assembly could break the long-standing bipolarity of the state's political landscape. By potentially securing nearly half of the seats in its debut election, TVK shifts the focus from traditional party loyalty to a new populist wave, likely forcing the DMK and other established parties to redefine their strategies to retain power.
