An Axis My India exit poll projects that actor Vijay's Tamil Nadu Kongu (TVK) party will win a majority in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election.
The projection suggests a significant shift in the state's political landscape, potentially disrupting the established dominance of the DMK and AIADMK axis. A victory for a newcomer party would signal a major realignment of voter loyalty in the region.
According to the poll, TVK is projected to secure between 98 and 120 seats [1]. This seat count would grant the party a majority in the assembly. The data indicates the party is expected to capture around 35% of the total vote share [2].
Analysts cited in the reports said this surge is due to a combination of anti-incumbency sentiment and a strong appeal among youthful voters [5]. The party has found particular success with women, where it is projected to hold approximately 35% of the vote share [3].
In contrast, other political blocs face different projections. The NDA is projected to secure between 88 and 100 seats [4]. The shift toward TVK suggests that the actor's transition from cinema to politics has resonated with a broad demographic, particularly those seeking an alternative to traditional party structures.
While the poll signals a potential victory, the final results will depend on the actual turnout and the ability of TVK to convert poll momentum into official votes on election day.
“TVK is projected to secure between 98 and 120 seats”
The projection indicates that actor Vijay has successfully leveraged his celebrity status and a youthful platform to penetrate the traditional Dravidian political stronghold. By capturing a significant share of the female vote and capitalizing on anti-incumbency, TVK is positioning itself not as a fringe player, but as a primary contender capable of governing Tamil Nadu.
