Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads opponent Fernando Haddad (PT) in recent polling for the São Paulo gubernatorial race.
These results are critical as São Paulo is Brazil's most populous state, making the race a primary indicator of political momentum and party strength ahead of the general elections.
A Genial/Quaest poll released Wednesday, June 29, shows Freitas with 41% [1] of first-round voting intentions, while Haddad holds 26% [1]. The survey indicates that Freitas maintains his lead in both first-round and projected second-round scenarios [1, 3].
Other surveys conducted earlier in June reflect a similar trend, though the margins vary. A Paraná Pesquisas poll placed Freitas at 45.6% [4] and Haddad at 34.1% [4]. Meanwhile, a Datafolha survey reported Freitas leading with 46% [5] compared to 30% [5] for Haddad.
When adjusting for valid votes, Datafolha found Freitas holding 52% [7] of the share, while Haddad trailed with 34% [8]. These figures suggest a consistent gap between the two main contenders, a trend that has persisted across different polling firms.
The gubernatorial contest is occurring alongside races for the Senate in São Paulo. Recent data from June 16 suggests that candidates Simone Tebet and Marina Selma are among those leading the competition for Senate seats [2].
While the Genial/Quaest data provides the most recent snapshot, the range of support for Freitas across the three major polls fluctuates between 41% [1] and 46% [5]. For Haddad, the range of support varies from 26% [1] to 34.1% [4].
“Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads opponent Fernando Haddad (PT) in recent polling”
The consistent lead of Tarcísio de Freitas across multiple polling agencies suggests strong incumbent support and a challenge for the PT party to reclaim the state's executive office. Because São Paulo is a pivotal economic and political hub, these numbers may influence how national parties allocate resources and shape their broader strategies for the 2026 election cycle.
