Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads the race for governor of São Paulo with 40% of voting intentions [1].
The results signal a strong position for the incumbent as the 2026 election cycle progresses in Brazil's most populous state. The poll provides a snapshot of the current political divide between the right and left in the region.
According to the Quaest poll released Tuesday, Fernando Haddad (PT) follows with 27% of intentions [1]. Other candidates trailing significantly include Police Officer Edjane (Agir), who holds two percent [1]. Several other candidates, including Vera Lúcia, Carlos Machado, Vivian Mendes, and Izadora Dias, each hold one percent of the vote [1].
The survey also highlights a notable portion of the electorate that remains undecided or disengaged. Undecided voters account for 13% [1], while those intending to cast blank or null votes, or those who do not plan to vote, total 14% [1].
These figures show relative stability compared to previous data. In a prior poll conducted on July 29, Tarcísio held 41% and Haddad held 26% [8]. The current margin remains significant despite these slight shifts.
The poll, which was commissioned by Globo, carries a margin of error of two percentage points [7].
“Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads the race for governor of São Paulo with 40% of voting intentions”
The consistency between the July and August polling suggests a solidified base for Tarcísio de Freitas, making it difficult for challengers to close the gap without a significant shift in the undecided block. With 27% of the electorate combined as undecided or non-voting, these voters will be the primary target for campaigns seeking to disrupt the current lead.
