São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas leads his main rival, Fernando Haddad, in simulated first- and second-round election scenarios [1], [2].
The results indicate a strong position for the incumbent as he seeks re-election in Brazil's most populous state. The race serves as a critical barometer for the broader political climate in the country.
According to a Genial/Quaest poll released in late July 2026, de Freitas holds a significant lead in the first-round simulation. Reports on his first-round intention range from 40% [1] to 41% [3], [5]. During the same period, Fernando Haddad, a former finance minister, trailed with support ranging between 26% [3], [5] and 27% [1].
Other data from the Genial/Quaest survey suggests the advantage persists in a runoff. In a simulated second round, de Freitas holds 48% of voter intention compared to 32% for Haddad [5]. Different reports on the gap between the two candidates vary slightly, with some citing a 13-point advantage [10] and others noting a 15-point lead [11] for the governor.
The polling data suggests that de Freitas' current administration is well-regarded by the electorate. He maintains a 55% approval rating for his state administration [5].
Separate data from an Ideia poll reported by O Globo shows an even wider gap in the first round. That survey placed de Freitas at 51% and Haddad at 34% [12], [13].
De Freitas continues to leverage his administrative record to maintain his lead over Haddad as the campaign progresses.
“Tarcísio de Freitas leads his main rival, Fernando Haddad, in simulated first- and second-round election scenarios”
The consistent lead held by Tarcísio de Freitas across multiple polls suggests that his administrative approval is translating directly into electoral viability. By maintaining a double-digit lead over a high-profile opponent like Fernando Haddad, de Freitas is positioned not only to secure a second term but to solidify his influence within the Brazilian political landscape, potentially impacting national party dynamics.
