Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said combining Tesla and SpaceX makes a ton of sense.
A merger would consolidate two of the world's most influential technology companies under a single corporate structure, potentially streamlining operations and resource sharing.
Speaking in a Bloomberg interview on July 31, Munster said the two companies have increasing operational overlap. This strategic synergy is supported by Elon Musk, who said there is more and more overlap between the entities [3].
To facilitate such a move, Munster said Tesla is weighing a separation of its China business. This maneuver would likely remove significant regulatory hurdles that could otherwise block a merger between the electric vehicle maker and the aerospace company [1].
Market sentiment reflects a high probability of this consolidation. Data from Kalshi indicates a 74% [3] chance that the merger will occur by May 2027. Following Musk's comments regarding the overlap, Munster raised his own estimate, saying he now sees a 90% [2] chance of a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up.
However, not all market observers agree with the logic of the move. Some commentators said that while such a merger would be nostalgic, it would not make a lot of sense from a business perspective [3].
Despite these contradictions, the focus remains on the potential for a massive industrial conglomerate. The proposed separation of the China unit serves as a critical tactical step to ensure the deal can proceed without geopolitical interference [1].
“Combining Tesla and SpaceX makes a ton of sense.”
A merger between Tesla and SpaceX would create an unprecedented conglomerate spanning terrestrial transport, energy, and interplanetary exploration. By potentially spinning off its China operations, Tesla could insulate the broader merger from the volatile regulatory environment of the world's largest EV market, thereby reducing the risk of state-level intervention in a U.S.-based corporate consolidation.
