A new poll shows Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow lead over Democratic State Representative James Talarico for a U.S. Senate seat.
This race serves as a critical bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections in Texas. The contest follows a high-profile Republican primary runoff where Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn to secure the nomination.
According to data from the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project, Paxton currently holds 43% support [1]. Talarico follows closely behind with 42% support [2]. The slim margin suggests a highly competitive general election in a state that has historically trended Republican but seen shifts in recent cycles.
The polling comes weeks after the primary runoff concluded. The shift in leadership within the Republican ticket, moving from Cornyn to Paxton, has altered the dynamic of the race as both candidates now pivot to target the broader general election electorate.
Talarico has focused his campaign on contrasting his legislative record with Paxton's tenure as Attorney General. The narrow gap in polling indicates that the Democratic strategy is maintaining a competitive presence despite the Republican advantage in statewide registration.
Paxton's victory over the incumbent Senator Cornyn marked a significant transition in the state's GOP establishment. The current polling reflects the initial voter sentiment following that primary victory as the campaigns move into the final phase of the election cycle.
“Paxton currently holds 43% support”
The narrow one-point gap indicates that the 2026 Texas Senate seat is a toss-up, reflecting a polarized electorate. Paxton's ability to maintain a lead after ousting an incumbent suggests his brand of conservatism remains dominant in the party, while Talarico's strong showing demonstrates the viability of a Democratic challenge in a traditionally red state.
