Incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX) competed in a Republican Senate runoff on Tuesday, May 24 [1].
The outcome determines the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas. The race serves as a critical test of the influence of President Donald Trump's endorsements within the state's Republican primary process.
The runoff was triggered after no candidate secured a majority during the March 2026 primary [2]. The contest intensified after President Trump endorsed Paxton, saying, "Ken Paxton is the right man to represent Texas in the Senate" [3].
Paxton responded to the support by saying he was honored to have the endorsement and would fight for Texas values [4]. Cornyn maintained his focus on his record, saying he would continue to serve Texas and let voters decide who should represent them in Washington [5].
Data regarding the frontrunner remains conflicted. Final polls showed Cornyn leading Paxton 48% to 44% [6]. However, betting odds shifted in the opposite direction, favoring Paxton at 2:1 [7].
Both candidates flooded the Texas airwaves during the final days of the campaign to secure the nomination. The high-stakes battle pitted a long-term incumbent against a state official backed by the MAGA movement, a dynamic that has defined several recent primary challenges across the U.S.
“"Ken Paxton is the right man to represent Texas in the Senate."”
This runoff highlights the ongoing tension between established Republican incumbents and the populist wing of the party. While polling suggests Cornyn's institutional support remains strong, the discrepancy with betting odds indicates significant volatility and a potential surge in support for Paxton driven by the Trump endorsement.
