Former U.S. President Donald Trump could successfully persuade China to exert diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open [1, 2].
This potential alignment is significant because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Any disruption to the waterway threatens international trade and energy security, creating a rare point of shared interest between the U.S. and China.
John Hinderaker, president of the Centre of the American Experiment, discussed the possibility during an interview with Sky News Australia [1, 2]. He said that maintaining the flow of traffic through the strait aligns with China's own economic requirements [1, 2].
"I think Trump could be successful in getting China to exert some pressure on Iran," Hinderaker said [1, 2].
China maintains significant economic ties with Iran, but it also relies heavily on the stability of Middle Eastern oil routes to fuel its domestic growth. Because of this dependency, Hinderaker said that Beijing may be willing to use its influence to prevent Iran from closing the waterway.
The strategy would rely on the premise that China prefers a stable global market over the regional instability that would result from a blockade of the strait [1, 2]. This approach suggests a transactional diplomatic method where U.S. goals are achieved by leveraging the economic vulnerabilities of a third party.
“"I think Trump could be successful in getting China to exert some pressure on Iran."”
This perspective suggests that U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump may prioritize transactional diplomacy over ideological confrontation. By identifying China's economic dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. could potentially outsource the containment of Iranian aggression to Beijing, reducing the need for direct U.S. military intervention while utilizing China's leverage as a primary trade partner of Iran.
