U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing this month to discuss the ongoing trade war.
The summit arrives as both superpowers attempt to gauge their respective leverage in a dispute that has fundamentally reshaped global economic policy. The outcome of the meeting could determine the trajectory of international trade for years to come.
Analysts from The Economist, CNN, and Foreign Policy said that China currently holds the stronger position in the dispute. This assessment comes as the trade war has persisted for nearly a decade [1]. The prolonged nature of the conflict has forced both nations to adjust their supply chains, and economic dependencies.
President Trump has focused on reducing the trade deficit and curbing Chinese industrial influence. Meanwhile, President Xi has sought to maintain domestic stability while expanding China's reach through alternative trade partnerships. The meeting in Beijing is seen as a critical point to determine if a resolution is possible or if the dysfunction between the two leaders will persist.
The geopolitical stakes remain high as the two leaders navigate a relationship defined by competition. The summit is expected to address specific tariffs and trade barriers that have remained in place throughout the decade-long conflict [1]. Because the trade war has lasted so long, the economic structures of both countries have evolved, potentially shifting the balance of power in favor of Beijing.
“China currently holds the stronger position in the dispute.”
The perceived shift in leverage toward China suggests that the U.S. strategy of using tariffs to force systemic changes in Chinese trade behavior may have reached a point of diminishing returns. As the conflict enters its tenth year, the global economy has partially decoupled, potentially leaving the U.S. with fewer points of pressure to apply during negotiations in Beijing.
